A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
